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December overview

As we enter December, supply chains are navigating the final stretch of peak season. Ocean capacity remains available on key trades, while we continue to monitor developments in the Red Sea. Inland networks face continued pressure from railcar shortages and driver constraints, and ground freight shows tightening fundamentals despite stable rates. Warehousing strategies are shifting toward flexibility as brands rationalize footprints, and parcel networks are managing the critical final weeks before Christmas and the returns surge ahead.

In this month's update, you'll find guidance on Red Sea developments, ocean capacity across trades, LCL as a cost-effective alternative, customs changes in Mexico and US tariff updates for 2026, inland planning for rail delays and driver capacity constraints, warehousing strategy for the new year, ground freight including our new Lake City, Georgia hub, and e-commerce tactics for the final weeks of peak and the returns period.

Ocean Update

Red Sea and Suez Canal: Considering the progress on the Gaza ceasefire, we are closely monitoring developments in the region. We currently have no specific timing to change the East-West (Gemini) network to sail through the Red Sea. The safety of our crew, our assets, and your cargo remains our top priority. For the latest information, please refer to our dedicated Red Sea page and our latest customer advisory. We will continue to share advisories as developments occur.

Europe to North America: We have space available on routes from North Europe to the US, including our TA1 and TA2 services and capacity into Long Beach. We expect this to continue through December. On Mediterranean-to-US routes, you'll find capacity on our TA10 and TA12 services. For shipments to Canada from North Europe and the Mediterranean, capacity is limited due to low winter water levels, though we can accommodate short-term volumes when space opens up. We're running promotions on Maersk Spot for US-bound cargo to help you plan for early 2026. Book as far in advance as possible to secure your space. You can find our Christmas and New Year's blanking schedule on our website.

Indian Subcontinent, Middle East, and Africa to North America: Demand from India has increased as the market anticipates a tariff deal between the US and India. Our MECL service continues to operate with consistent weekly departures. We expect demand to rise further if a trade deal is reached. If you're having trouble securing bookings, we have space available in the Pacific Southwest as an alternative routing.

A Peak Season Surcharge for cargo from the region to the US East Coast and Gulf takes effect December 21. You can find the complete rate schedule on our website.

If you're shipping cocoa from West Africa or cut flowers to Mexico and the U.S., this season is showing strong potential. We have competitive pricing available to support your seasonal needs. For South Africa shipments, we have space on our SAECS service for fruits, nuts, textiles, and foodstuffs. Contact us if you have additional volume to move as we work to optimize inbound capacity.

Asia-Pacific to North America: Following Golden Week in China, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index spiked on both the US West Coast and East Coast routes but has since declined.

The U.S. and China announced a one-year postponement of port fees under the USTR Section 301 investigation, which originally took effect on October 14. This means we will not make the previously announced changes to our TP7 service (US-flagged). The service will return to its normal rotation, including a call at Ningbo.

As we approach the Chinese New Year on January 29, we expect capacity to tighten in the weeks leading up to the holiday, as is typical for this period. Book early to secure your space.

Our East-West (Gemini) network continues to deliver strong reliability, with our Transpacific Eastbound services achieving 94.6% on-time performance into the West Coast and 88.1% into the East Coast, according to the latest SeaIntel report released in November 2025.

To receive the latest updates on your cargo, sign up for ETA notifications or check schedules on Maersk.com. For weekly operational updates in our “Weekly Reader,” subscribe to our advisories at Maersk.com/newsletter.

Less than Container Load (LCL) Update

LCL shipping into North America remains steady as high airfreight rates and tariff pressures drive importers toward ocean freight for smaller shipments. E-commerce growth and diversified sourcing from Asia and Latin America continue to fuel demand for frequent, smaller replenishments.

LCL offers cost savings of up to 80% over air on select lanes and pay-per-use flexibility that helps you manage inventory costs without the penalties of overstocking under current tariff conditions. We expect LCL volumes on Asia-North America routes to reach record highs in Q1 2026 as automation in consolidation hubs and digital booking systems reduces delays.

Customs Update

Tariff changes and new enforcement rules continue to reshape import operations across the United States. Several important shifts have taken effect or been announced over the past month.

CBP and Commerce have moved to full enforcement of the steel and aluminum country-of-origin rules for smelt-and-pour and smelt-and-cast products. Importers are experiencing more holds for missing mill certificates, targeted reviews for inconsistent manufacturing records, and additional duties where smelt/pour occurred in non-market economies, including China, Russia, and Belarus. Ensure your mill certificates are complete, and your manufacturing records are consistent to avoid holds and additional duties.

CBP and Commerce have begun actively reviewing additional downstream steel and aluminum articles for possible inclusion under Section 232. Several categories, including small hardware, rolled products, and fabricated components, have been flagged for potential duty expansion during the 2026 rulemaking. If you import these products, monitor developments closely as 232 coverage may widen, affecting industries that previously had minimal exposure.

With the global de minimis exemption now removed, CBP has shifted from transition guidance to compliance audits, focusing on misuse of gift exemptions, consignee ID irregularities, and incorrect valuation on low-value commercial shipments. Small-parcel importers are beginning to receive penalty notices and proposed liquidated damages for improper entries. Review your entry practices now to ensure compliance.

In November, the U.S. implemented additional duties on selected goods from India (industrial inputs, metals, chemicals), Vietnam (electronics, machinery parts), and Turkey (steel semifinished and metal components). These actions vary by HTS but generally introduce new Chapter 99 tariffs between 10% and 35%. If you import from these regions, verify your HTS classifications and calculate the impact on your landed costs.

Following the "top-up to 15%" rule introduced earlier this year, the U.S. has finalized additional EU product-level tariff alignments, impacting categories such as automotive parts, industrial machinery, and plastics and polymers. Entries for November and December should reflect these updated duty rates.

CBP and DHS have intensified investigations into China-origin goods routed through Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, and Cambodia, with multiple WRO-style actions and detentions occurring this month. Industries most affected include solar components, apparel, electronics, and small machinery. Expect additional lists, expanded targeting, and more CF-28/29 activity heading into Q1. If you source from these regions, review your supply chain documentation and country of origin determinations.

Mexico announced upcoming 2026 courier and e-commerce tax reforms and increased scrutiny on US-origin claims and certificates of origin under USMCA.

Mexico imposed tariffs ranging from 156% to 210.44% on sugar imports from WTO member countries without existing trade agreements, effective November 12. The tariffs apply 156% to cane sugar and 210.44% to refined liquid sugar and inverted sugar. If you import sugar into Mexico, review your supply chain and pricing strategies to account for these new costs.

Mexico also published reforms to its Customs Law that will take effect on January 1, 2026. The changes affect tax compliance, the roles of customs brokers and agencies, importer documentary requirements, and the accuracy of contribution determinations. Work with your customs broker now to understand how these changes affect your compliance obligations and documentation requirements for 2026.

Stay in close contact with your customs broker to understand how these changes may affect your specific commodities. Our regulatory advisory team can help you apply Free Trade Agreements, including USMCA, structure tariff engineering strategies, and align with Partner Government Agency requirements. We use automation to speed clearance and reduce errors, and our new Trade & Tariff Studio gives you SKU-level visibility into duty exposure and regulatory requirements, runs what-if scenarios across suppliers and origins, and flags risks early, such as potential forced labor, sanctions, or denied party issues.

For support or access to Trade & Tariff Studio, contact compliance.mcsi.nam@maersk.com in the US and compliance.ca.mcsi.nam@maersk.com in Canada.

Inland Update

In the U.S. West Coast, port activity is increasing, supported by current tariff conditions. Container dwell times remain below historical averages, indicating strong fluidity across major gateways. However, driver availability is tightening due to stricter enforcement of English Language Proficiency requirements and new Commercial Driver's License standards. These changes affect regional drayage networks more than the national market.

The U.S. Department of Transportation has directed California and other states to stop issuing and renewing commercial driver’s licenses (CDLs) for non-resident drivers, with 30 days to comply or risk losing federal funding. While driver supply remains sufficient now, these enforcement measures could reduce drayage capacity over time.

Carrier revocations continue at 5,000 to 6,000 per month, representing one of the most significant structural shifts in U.S. trucking since deregulation in 1980. The gap between revocations and new entrants signals ongoing contraction in carrier supply. Despite these tightening fundamentals, rates have not risen, reflecting a gradual market correction rather than a sharp supply shock.

Consider using Carrier Haulage under Maersk Bills of Lading to protect against these market pressures. This model locks in your drayage rates and reduces your exposure to demurrage and detention charges. On average, customers save $100 compared to total trucking expenses.

The Canadian inland market remains active with high container volumes, particularly on the West Coast. Congestion from railcar shortages and increased cargo volumes means some containers are taking 1 to 2 weeks to be loaded onto rail at the port. Plan with additional lead time for your inland rail and trucking moves.

In Eastern Canada, low water levels on the St. Lawrence River remain below seasonal averages and are expected to stay low over the coming weeks, according to the Canadian Coast Guard. This limits vessel drafts and affects schedule reliability. Labor disruptions at select terminals and limited railcar availability are slowing cargo movement further. These combined factors may lead to fluctuating discharge volumes from arriving vessels and uneven inland cargo flows. At Newark, terminal dwell times are moderate with mild congestion anticipated this month, which may slow Canada-bound rail cargo.

Reefer trucking capacity from the US East Coast continues to be tight due to seasonal demand pressures and is expected to remain constrained through December as citrus volumes increase. However, export trucking capacity from Canada into the US East Coast remains available and can support your outbound flows.

Anticipate continued variability in transit times and plan for buffer inventory where possible. Share your reefer, overweight, or urgent shipment requirements early to help us secure inland capacity for you. We're sourcing alternative trucking capacity for reefer and time-sensitive shipments and working with terminal operators to reduce dwell times. Short-term delays are expected to continue into December as railcar shortages and high container volumes persist, and Montreal operations may remain variable as labor conditions stabilize and railcar availability gradually improves.

Warehousing Update

North American brands are rationalizing their warehouse footprints after the post-COVID overexpansion. US warehouse vacancy rates have hit an 11-year high of 7.1%, with over 45 million square feet of space hitting the market without tenants. Labor shortages, rising costs, sustainability pressures, and growing demand for automation are reshaping the market. Companies are pausing leasing decisions amid tariff uncertainty and oversupply, but third-party logistics providers are stepping up, now responsible for 38.3% of industrial leasing, a sharp rise from 25.2% in 2020.

Companies are seeking consulting-style support for network optimization, automation planning, and ESG compliance, while exploring outsourcing and Take Over In Place (TOIP) models to reduce capital strain and focus on core business operations. Strategic insourcing models that blend insourced control with outsourced scalability are gaining traction, allowing you to maintain control over leases, equipment, and systems while relying on a partner to manage facility operations, leadership, and staff.

We're driving cost efficiency through automation and touchless workflows, and delivering flexible solutions including shared capacity, hybrid and outsourced models, and rapid turnaround on value-added services. Our strategic consulting services include center-of-gravity analyses, transition strategies, and sustainability integration to help you optimize your network.

Looking ahead to 2026, flexibility will be the foundation of resilience. Peak season isn't just busy; it's the ultimate pressure test for your warehousing strategy. Hybrid setups give you the ability to scale operations on demand without locking into long-term leases or overcommitting capital. When tariffs shift or demand spikes, you need the ability to pivot quickly. If you're planning your 2026 warehouse strategy, now is the time to assess whether your current footprint allows for the agility you'll need.

Ground Freight Update

In the U.S., demand signals remain mixed, but tightening risks are rising. The Cass Shipments Index trended down post-summer while truckload volumes stabilized in September. Capacity contracted in Q3 as more fleets exited. Spot truckload rates are up year-to-date in 2025, while contract rates remain below 2024 levels.

Load-to-truck ratios climbed into October across dry van, reefer, and flatbed, signaling further rate firmness ahead. Lock your core lanes under your available pricing matrix and use spot rates only for true overflow. If you need stability on dray and linehaul, consider carrier haulage with all-in pricing to reduce surprise costs and protect against storage if free time is tight.

The 2025 ocean peak season shifted from traditional patterns. US ports handled a record 2.39 million TEUs in July, while October through December volumes declined significantly. Retailers are ordering in smaller, more frequent waves, creating short-notice tenders and regional demand spikes. This environment demands predictive visibility and proactive planning, not just capacity and competitive rates.

Companies using AI-driven forecasting tools have seen up to a 65% improvement in service quality and a 15% reduction in logistics costs. We use AI and machine learning to simulate routing scenarios and identify potential disruptions from weather, traffic, or performance data, enabling pre-emptive rerouting to preserve your delivery windows.

We recently opened ground freight hubs in Lake City, Georgia and Dallas–Fort Worth to strengthen our network capacity and connectivity heading into 2026.

Starting November 1, an executive order imposed US tariffs of 25% on medium and heavy-duty vehicles and key parts, covering Class 3–8 trucks. Importers of vehicles qualifying under the USMCA can seek to have the 25% tariff applied only to the non-US content of those vehicles.

The Canadian ground freight market enters December with stable but subdued demand following the seasonal peak in late November. Most holiday-related freight has already moved, leaving volumes softer across domestic lanes. Retail and lifestyle verticals remain active for final promotional pushes, but consumer spending is restrained compared to prior years.

Spot rates hover near floor levels, with intra-Canada dry van pricing slightly down and cross-border flows weakening due to tariff uncertainty and muted US manufacturing demand. Capacity remains structurally tighter than in the US, but the balance favors shippers given weak industrial activity. Weather-related disruptions and freeze-protection requirements may introduce localized volatility, particularly in Western Canada and along eastbound corridors from BC to ON/QC.

Plan early for remaining December moves, particularly those requiring freeze protection or specialized equipment. While rates are favorable, lead times may tighten closer to mid-month as carriers adjust for holiday driver availability. Fixed departure schedules can help you mitigate risks from weather-related delays and regional imbalances.

E-Commerce Update

We are in the final stretch of peak season for parcel delivery, with U.S. holiday parcel volumes expected to rise around 5% compared to 2024. As major last-mile carriers have introduced peak surcharges to manage seasonal pressure, cost stability is critical through the end of the month. We've secured capacity allocation with partners and optimized routes to maintain reliable delivery performance across the network.

With Christmas just weeks away, cut-off dates are more critical than ever. Missing shipping deadlines now risks late arrivals and customer dissatisfaction. Maintain realistic delivery promises and prepare for higher post-holiday returns to ensure smooth operations. Peak demand will run through the end of December, followed by a surge in returns throughout January. Last-mile return flows will remain under pressure until they normalize later in the month.

As you look ahead to 2026, now is the time to evaluate your parcel strategy. Diversifying your carrier network, implementing AI-based routing that selects carriers based on real-time rates and capacity, and securing locked rates can help you navigate future peak seasons more effectively. Our e-commerce team can work with you to assess your current setup and develop a strategy for the year ahead.

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