Navigating 2025's Geopolitical Supply Chain Landscape

2025 is already facing a series of complex and interrelated geopolitical challenges with global supply chains feeling the impacts. Worryingly, experts only expect these impacts to further challenge in the coming months. From escalating conflicts to climate change, technological vulnerabilities, resource scarcity, regulatory changes, and health crises, these factors are collectively shaping how logistics professionals strategise and execute their global operations of businesses worldwide. Leading industry experts encourage businesses to adopt a resilience mindset, develop geopolitical risk mitigation techniques, and to lean into the almost constant state of crisis. By adjusting to this new normal and developing anti-fragile methods to managing these shifts, businesses can navigate these shifts with more ease, visibility and flexibility.

Top Geopolitical Risks for 2025

The Global Risks Report 2025 by the World Economic Forum highlights this increasingly fractured global landscape, with escalating geopolitical, environmental, societal, and technological challenges threatening stability and progress. The report is based on the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025, which gathered insights from over 900 experts worldwide.

Armed Conflict

According to the report, state-based armed conflict, including proxy wars, civil wars, coups, and terrorism, is identified as the top risk for 2025, with 23% of respondents viewing it as the most pressing threat. These conflicts disrupt trade routes, impact availability of critical materials, and destabilise regional supply networks. For instance, tensions in the South China Sea and Eastern Europe have already caused significant disruptions, forcing companies to rethink their supply chain strategies and seek alternative routes and suppliers. And due to the continued tensions in the Middle East, the security risk of commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb strait remains high, with most large container shipping companies continuing to sail around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope until safe passage through the area is ensured for the longer term.

In addition to these geopolitical tensions, the report also highlights several other top risks that are shaping the global landscape in 2025.

Trade Conflict

The threat of trade conflict is prompting companies to reassess their supply chain strategies. Proposed tariffs could lead businesses to nearshore production to mitigate potential impacts. This shift, while aimed at reducing dependency on foreign suppliers, also introduces new challenges such as increased production costs and the need for new infrastructure. The economic gamble of trade conflicts underscores the importance of having a diversified and resilient supply chain that can adapt to changing trade policies and tariffs.

Changing Regulations

Changes in trade policies, tariffs, and regulations can impact supply chain operations, requiring companies to adapt quickly to new compliance requirements and potential cost increases. For instance, the introduction of new environmental regulations and labour laws can affect production processes and sourcing strategies. In January 2025, the world saw the implementation of the FuelEU Maritime regulations. Companies should prioritise being on top of regulatory developments, among others, and engage in proactive planning to ensure compliance and minimise disruptions. This includes investing in technologies that improve transparency and traceability across the supply chain. Businesses that fail to stay informed of regulation changes increase risks to their supply chain as well as delays in the form of customs and border-crossing areas. Karin Utternas, Customs Process Administrator at Maersk, highlights undertaking due diligence and being aware of rule changes and laws well in advance of committing to a delivery date and booking cargo for a shipment, as a highly important component of supply chains.

Climate Change Risks

Climate change disruptions pose another significant risk to logistics. Extreme weather instances are expected to increase in frequency and severity, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts, which can disrupt supply chains by damaging infrastructure, affecting production, and causing delays. Companies must invest in resilient infrastructure and adopt practices to mitigate these risks. This includes optimising transportation routes to reduce climate impact and ensuring that production facilities are equipped to handle extreme weather conditions. Additionally, with the changes climate change can bring, businesses and consumers may end up with higher costs overall, resulting in further pain points.

Future Pandemics

Health crises are also a concern, according to the report. While less immediate, the potential for future pandemics remains a concern, as they can disrupt labour forces, manufacturing, and logistics networks, besides a heavy human toll. The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the vulnerabilities in global supply chains, with widespread disruptions in production and transportation. Companies should develop robust contingency plans and invest in technologies that enhance supply chain visibility and agility. This includes adopting decentralised models and multi-source procurement strategies to ensure continuity of operations during health crises.

Expert Perspectives on 2025 Risk Mitigation

The World Economic Forum report emphasises the need for decision-makers to balance current crises with longer-term priorities to navigate these complex risks effectively. Logistics experts seem to align on this, with James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum, advising and equipping his members with tools to best cope with today's geopolitical realities. He finds it helpful to categorise disruption and uncertainty into distinct areas for better management. He identifies these areas as:

• Geopolitical events
• Natural disasters
• Climate change
• Industrial action and labour disputes
• The Red Sea crisis
• Medical pandemics
• Technological failures
• Localised disruptions from accidents

Given the increased frequency of these disruptions, Hookham endorses a new mindset: businesses should think and manage their supply chains as being constantly under crisis, rather than hoping the geopolitics of the moment are temporary.

Zera Zheng, Maersk Global Head of Business Resilience Consulting, also sees these issues as the top concern for 2025. Whether it is civil unrest in Mozambique causing damage to the port in Maputo, the outcome of federal elections in Germany, or the impact of tariffs across the globe, Zheng predicts these forces will shape the entire world. This makes it even more important to businesses to ensure they have appropriate channels to receive information and make informed decisions during dynamic times. Zheng says businesses need to know whether and when to activate their contingency plans. Information about global challenges should support in these decisions. She advocates for businesses to be proactive, rather than reactive in a crisis. Every second counts in a crisis, says Zheng. Strategic planning and business continuity exercises will save businesses money and time when it is time to activate a contingency plan.

Looking Ahead and Staying Ready

The geopolitical landscape in 2025 presents a myriad of challenges that significantly impact supply chains and logistics. From escalating conflicts and trade tensions to climate change, technological vulnerabilities, resource scarcity, regulatory changes, and health crises, businesses must navigate a complex and dynamic environment.

By all predictions, 2025 will be a turbulent year. Logistics professionals should be ready for multi-faceted solutions that can offer them the flexibility and agility needed to mitigate challenges and ensure resilience in their supply chain operations.

Be ready for geopolitical disruptions to go all the way! Discover more with Maersk Logistics Insights, learn about a network designed to improve reliability and agility with Maersk, and read more about enhancing supply chain resilience. Watch or listen to the latest episode of the Beyond the Box podcast to hear more expert insights about the geopolitical landscape shaping the industry in 2025.